Tuesday, 24 November: iiNet (IIN) reported 67% higher revenue and 29% higher net profit in FY 2008–2009. However, Australia’s third-largest ISP company is embroiled in copyright litigation. Its most recent high of 2.38, set 9 September, hasn’t been seriously threatened in weeks.

Monadelphous Group (MND) has announced a string of multimillion dollar contracts in the year. On 27 October the stock spiked to 14.33, its 2009 high, but otherwise it remains blocked by resistance at 14.00.

Ramsay Health Care (RHC) recently completed an institutional new shares offer of $220 million. Net profit after tax was guided in the 12–14% range. RHC touched an interim high of 11.96 on 26 June and thereafter set a series of progressively lower highs (bearish downtrend), holding beneath 11.00 throughout November until Wednesday, 18 November, when it spiked through. A return of risk acceptance or an exceptionally good result could change resistance at 11.00 to support.

Wednesday, 25 November: Australian Vintage (AVG) shares have fallen in value from a January 2008 high of 2.31 to a July 2009 low of 0.125 due to the drought, costs, and grape oversupply. The company had a very good August, as the stock surged from 0.18 to 0.49 in three trading days after sales rose 9% and debt was restructured. Although the euphoria didn’t last and the stock has trended back below 0.30, the company reports to be on track for 100% growth in net profit after taxes (before significant items). There could be fireworks here, in either direction.

Thursday, 26 November: Beach Petroleum (BPT) holds a strong financial position, with $150 million cash in hand, no debt, several new oil discoveries, and a full-year dividend of 3.75 per share. This one could also move significantly.

Friday, 27 November: Patties Foods (PFL) this week issued sharply higher (40%) guidance for net profit after taxes for earnings through the end of the calendar year, accounting for its three-day surge from 1.05 to 1.28. This run might not be finished.

Meanwhile, Woolworths (WOW) at last analysis was testing resistance at 29.50. Although it successfully spiked through that level, forming a new 2009 high at 30.57 on 19 October, it followed that with the expected 50% retraction to 27.75 on 5 November. Currently the stock is consolidating around the 28.00 level, as shown below:

The two spikes through resistance have initiated a possible new bullish trend. If the stock resumes that uptrend, this time it should have sufficient momentum to break through and hold above resistance at 29.50.

technical analysis by Craig Liles

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